Amid revitalization of terrorists in Central Asia under the flags of the “Islamic state”, Russia and the United States are intensifying their efforts to resolve the crisis in Afghanistan.
Nowadays, the Trump administration chooses a military way over a diplomatic one. Military advisors to the U.S. president lobby the plan to increase military contingent in the territory of the Islamic Republic. The White House, however, considers sending only about 3,000 to 5,000 solders.
NATO allies would likely support this decision. U.S. Forces Afghanistan (USFOR-A) commander, General John Nicholson, believes that strengthening the contingent is to change the situation in the region. But there is a great skepticism in an expert community. If the Taliban withstood the massive deployment of foreign forces a few years ago, why would it yield now?
The former United States Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs (2009-2011) Philip J. Crowley believes that the administration of Donald Trump should move away from the strategy of military intervention as soon as possible. Undoubtedly, such a strategy is theoretically justified, but it does not work in the real state of affairs. The United States and NATO partners are looking for the opportunity to get out of this “swamp” for at least a decade. Trillions of dollars have been already spent, but the desired result is still unreachable. The sad experience of military campaigns led by the US, NATO and Russia should force the current American leadership to develop a new plan as soon as possible.
The resumption of cooperation with Russia might become a solution. According to Mr. Crowley, Russian interests in Afghanistan are similar to those in the US. “Nobody wants the Afghan government to fail, and the Taliban succeeded,” the analyst explained.
During an interview with American director Oliver Stone, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “cooperation with the United States on Afghanistan meets the national interests of Russia. This is an area where the countries should unite their efforts”.
Does this mean that in the midst of a phenomenon called the “Cold War 2.0”, Afghanistan can become a springboard, a starting point for renewing cooperation? Moreover, Washington and Moscow have experience in such cooperation.
However, the reluctance of the White House to show its weakness can become an obstacle. The fact is that Washington’s refusal of military intervention will mean the failure of US foreign policy in the region. The lives of American soldiers and huge amounts of money will be wasted. At the same time, such actions by the Trump Administration could become an extremely important and serious step on the way to political settlement of the Afghan crisis.
The experience of recent military conflicts in various parts of the world shows that the use of force only aggravates the situation. The United States have already been involved in so many local wars. Perhaps, Afghanistan is to become the country where the White House can protect its interests not by military but political means.